Market Performance Report for October 2006
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Summary:
To facilitate dissemination of market information in a timely manner, the California ISO will be posting on a planned and scheduled monthly basis the Market Performance Report for the previous month. The intention is to publish the report mid-month for the previous month's market information. This Market Performance Report will be similar to the information provided to the Board and market, however available on a more consistently timed basis. The format of this report has been modified from previous months. The market characteristics, over which the ISO has little control, are described first, followed by indicators of market performance, over which the ISO and market participants have varying levels of control, depending on the measure. An explanation of the importance of each indicator is footnoted on the page the measure is introduced, and any additional further information is endnoted. There is also a new section called Market Focus, which is intended as an occasional piece that focuses on operational and seasonal issues as they arise.
Extract:
Highlights for October 2006:
• The average load in October 2006 was 25,748 MW – about 3,500 MW or 11 percent below the average for September 2006.
• Natural gas prices rose steadily during October, consistent with normal seasonal pricing patterns, from a September low of $4.00 to around $7.00 by month’s end.
• Bilateral electricity prices also increased, paralleling increasing gas prices.
• Scheduled outages increased to an average of 4,500 MW, up sharply from September’s 2,000 MW.
• Average real-time energy prices declined 13% from $40.41/MWh to $35.50/MWh over the past month. Incremental prices declined 16% and decremental prices declined 3%.
• With declining loads, October saw a decline in 5-minute bid stack capacity in real-time, while utilization rates remained stable. This resulted in an increase in the frequency of real-time energy prices exceeding $250.
• The average total cost of Ancillary Services declined 22% from September’s $0.55/MWh to $0.43/MWh in October.
• Total unit commitment costs continued a 3-month decline, dropping a substantial 76% from September’s $2.7 million to $650,000 in October.
• For the first time since the implementation of Resource Adequacy in June 2006, there were no FERC Must-Offer unit commitments in October.
• Total inter-zonal congestion costs declined to $3.4 million in October from $7 million in September.
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